In October, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined sharply in both the EU and the euro area. It fell by 7.4 points in the EU and by 7.1 points in the euro area, to 77.5 and 80.4 respectively. In both regions, the ESI recorded its largest month-on-month decline ever to hit its lowest level since 1993.
Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)
EU: October 77.5
Euro area: October 80.4
In both the EU and the euro area, confidence fell considerably across all sectors. Consumer confidence reached its lowest level in close to fifteen years. The services confidence indicator recorded its lowest level since the introduction of the survey twelve years ago. Even though both the industry and construction confidence indicators also slipped significantly in October, they still stand clearly above the lows recorded in 1992 and 1993, respectively.
All countries reported a fall in their ESI. Among the large Member States, confidence deteriorated most markedly in the Netherlands (-11.3), followed by France (-6.5), Italy (-6.1), the UK (-5.7), Poland (-5.1), Germany (-4.8) and Spain (-3.5). The ESI stands clearly below its long-term average in all these countries apart from Poland .
In the EU, employment expectations among managers in industry and services continued to worsen. In addition, consumers expected a further increase in unemployment .
Selling price expectations of managers in the EU – both in industry and construction – fell significantly. Similarly, c onsumers' price expectations for the next 12 months decreased further.
The financial services confidence indicator – not included in the ESI – decreased significantly in both the EU and the euro area, to reach its lowest level since the launch of the survey in 2006.
The quarterly survey of the manufacturing sector, carried out in October, indicates that capacity utilisation dropped markedly, to a level below the long-term average, in both the EU and the area.
Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: October -19
Euro area: October -18
Service confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: October -10
Euro area: October -6
Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: October -23
Euro area: October -24
Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: October -16
Euro area: October -13
Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: October -25
Euro area: October -20
Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)
EU: October -4
Euro area: October -5
The next Business and Consumer Survey is due to be published on 27 November 2008.
October 2008: Business Climate Indicator for the euro area decreases further
The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell to values last observed in 2001. The low level of the indicator suggests that industrial activity remains subdued. All five underlying components of the BCI declined. The decline was fairly sharp for managers' production expectations and assessment of total order books and export order books; while their view of stocks of finished products and production trend observed in recent months worsened less.
The BCI is based on a factor analysis of the euro area aggregate balances (seasonally adjusted) of five of the monthly questions in the industry survey (only employment and selling-price expectations are excluded).
Full details of the Business Climate Indicator are available on the Europa website:
